Scenario Comparison
BAU vs WEM vs WAM emission projections for Kenya's NDC
Business as Usual
Projected emissions without any new climate policies beyond those in place before 2015. Assumes continuation of historical economic and demographic trends.
Emissions Trajectory (MtCO2e)
Key Assumptions
- GDP growth rate of 4.5-5.5% annually
- No new climate policies implemented
- Population growth of 2.3% per year
- Current energy mix maintained
Key Drivers
- Rapid urbanization and population growth
- Increased energy demand from industrialization
- Growing transport sector emissions
With Existing Measures
Projected emissions accounting for all currently implemented and adopted climate policies, including the NCCAP II, existing renewable energy targets, and forest conservation programs.
Emissions Trajectory (MtCO2e)
Key Assumptions
- Current policies fully implemented on schedule
- Renewable energy targets under NCCAP met
- Existing efficiency standards enforced
- Forest conservation measures maintained
Key Drivers
- Geothermal and wind energy expansion
- Feed-in tariff driving solar adoption
- Nairobi bus rapid transit system
With Additional Measures
Projected emissions including all planned additional mitigation measures beyond current policies, such as carbon pricing, enhanced LULUCF measures, and scaled-up international support.
Emissions Trajectory (MtCO2e)
Key Assumptions
- All planned policies fully implemented
- Enhanced renewable energy targets achieved
- Carbon pricing mechanism implemented by 2027
- Enhanced LULUCF measures operational
Key Drivers
- Carbon pricing at $15-25/tCO2e
- 5 GW geothermal capacity achieved
- Forest cover restored to 10% of land area
Ambition Gap Analysis
Gap between projected outcomes and NDC targets
WAM Projected (2030)
97 MtCO2e
NDC Unconditional Target
97.2 MtCO2e
NDC Conditional Target
82.9 MtCO2e
Conditional Target Gap: 14.1 MtCO2e
Even under the most ambitious scenario (WAM), there remains a 14.1 MtCO2e gap to reach the conditional NDC target of 82.9 MtCO2e by 2030. This gap requires additional measures or accelerated implementation of planned interventions with full international support.
Scenario Parameters
Adjustable assumptions for scenario modeling
GDP Growth Rate
5.2%
Range: 3.0-7.0%
Population Growth
2.3%
Range: 1.5-3.0%
Urbanization Rate
4.3%
Range: 3.0-5.5%
Carbon Price (WAM)
$20/tCO2e
Range: $10-$50
Renewable Share Target
100%
Range: 80-100%
Forest Cover Target
10%
Range: 8-15%