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Emission Projections
Sectoral emission projections under different scenarios
Projected Emissions by Sector (With Existing Measures (WEM))
EnergyTransportAgricultureLULUCFWasteIndustry
Stacked area chart: Emission projections by sector
With NDC target line overlay at 97.2 MtCO2e
Sectoral Projections (MtCO2e) - With Existing Measures (WEM)
| Year | Energy | Transport | Agriculture | LULUCF | Waste | Industry | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 30 | 14 | 17 | -6 | 7 | 11 | 73 |
| 2022 | 32 | 15 | 17 | -7 | 8 | 12 | 77 |
| 2024 | 34 | 17 | 18 | -7 | 8 | 13 | 83 |
| 2026 | 36 | 19 | 18 | -8 | 9 | 14 | 88 |
| 2028 | 37 | 21 | 19 | -8 | 10 | 15 | 94 |
| 2030 | 38 | 22 | 20 | -8 | 16 | 18 | 106 |
Gap Between Projected and Target
Projected 2030 (WEM)
106 MtCO2e
NDC Target (Unconditional)
97.2 MtCO2e
Gap
+8.8 MtCO2e
Above target - additional measures needed
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of varying key assumptions on 2030 emissions
| Parameter | Low | Baseline | High | Impact (Low) | Impact (High) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | -8 MtCO2e | +12 MtCO2e |
| Population Growth | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | -5 MtCO2e | +6 MtCO2e |
| Carbon Price | $10/tCO2e | $20/tCO2e | $50/tCO2e | +4 MtCO2e | -15 MtCO2e |
| RE Deployment Rate | Slow | Moderate | Accelerated | +7 MtCO2e | -10 MtCO2e |
| Deforestation Rate | Halved | Current | Doubled | -6 MtCO2e | +8 MtCO2e |