Detailed Tracking
Granular progress data with verification and quality assessment
Trend Analysis
increasingTotal emissions are rising but remain below the BAU trajectory of 143 MtCO2e by 2030. The unconditional target (7% below BAU) is on track, but the conditional target (32% below BAU = 97.2 MtCO2e) requires significantly scaled-up international support. BAU 2030: 143 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF. Total mitigation potential: 86.5 MtCO2e across all sectors.
Data Point Timeline
6 records for Economy-wide GHG vs BAU (Updated NDC 2020)
118 MtCO2e
BTR-1 (Draft)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2 + satellite validation
Climate Change Directorate
10 Aug 2025
110 MtCO2e
National GHG Inventory
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2
Climate Change Directorate
15 Feb 2024
100 MtCO2e
BUR-3
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2
Climate Change Directorate
1 Apr 2022
95 MtCO2e
3rd National Communication
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2
Ministry of Environment & Forestry
10 Jan 2021
80 MtCO2e
National GHG Inventory
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
20 Jun 2019
73 MtCO2e
National GHG Inventory (BUR-2)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
15 Mar 2018
Data Quality
Quality Score
Assessment Notes
- National GHG Inventory uses IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Tier 2 for most sectors
- BAU baseline of 143 MtCO2e (2030) established in Updated NDC (2020)
- Second NDC (April 2025) sets new BAU of 215 MtCO2e by 2035 with 35% reduction target
- LULUCF estimates carry higher uncertainty (+-15%); satellite validation ongoing
- BTR-1 submitted to UNFCCC in December 2024