Gap Analysis
Comprehensive assessment of gaps between NDC targets and current trajectory
Overall Ambition Gap Assessment
143 MtCO2e
BAU Emissions (2030)
97 MtCO2e
Current Trajectory (WAM)
76 MtCO2e
NDC Conditional Target (2030)
Sector Status Overview
Traffic light assessment across all sectors
Implementation Gap by Sector
NDC target vs current progress across sectors
| Sector | NDC Target (MtCO2e) | Current (MtCO2e) | Gap (MtCO2e) | Gap (%) | Status | Priority | Key Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy | 12.8 | 18.4 | -15 | 30% | Critical | Accelerate renewable energy deployment from 87% to 100% grid share | |
Agriculture | 10.6 | 15.1 | -8 | 42% | Critical | Scale climate-smart agriculture to 60% of farmland | |
Transport | 5.7 | 8.2 | -5.5 | 44% | High | Implement public transit expansion in Nairobi and Mombasa | |
Forestry (LULUCF) | -18 | -12.5 | -5.5 | 31% | High | Accelerate the 10% tree cover target implementation | |
Waste | 3.4 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 29% | Medium | Expand waste-to-energy projects in major cities | |
| Total | -36.8 | ||||||
Prioritized Recommendations
Top actions to close the NDC implementation gap
Scale Renewable Energy to 100% Grid Share
Accelerate geothermal, solar, and wind deployment to achieve fully decarbonized electricity grid by 2030.
National Climate-Smart Agriculture Program
Roll out CSA practices to 60% of farmland with extension services, inputs, and market linkages.
Urban Public Transit Transformation
BRT systems for Nairobi and Mombasa, NMT infrastructure, and electric bus fleet procurement.
10% Tree Cover Campaign Acceleration
Community-based reforestation, commercial forestry expansion, and urban greening programs.
Waste-to-Energy Program
Waste-to-energy plants in 5 major cities, landfill gas capture, and organic waste diversion.