Baseline Scenarios
Define and compare BAU, WEM, and WAM emission scenarios for NDC planning
Business As Usual (BAU)
BAUProjected emissions trajectory without any new climate policies beyond those already in place before the base year. Assumes continuation of historical economic and demographic trends with no additional mitigation interventions.
2015
73
MtCO2e
2020
98
MtCO2e
2025
120
MtCO2e
2030
143
MtCO2e
Key Assumptions
- GDP growth 4.5-5.5% annually
- No new climate policies implemented
- Population growth 2.3% per year
- Current energy mix maintained
- Urbanization rate of 4.3%
- No international climate finance
Methodology
Bottom-up sectoral modeling using LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform). Historical data from 2010-2015 used as calibration baseline. Growth projections based on Vision 2030 economic parameters.
Scenario Comparison (MtCO2e)
Detailed Analysis| Scenario | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | Change vs BAU (2030) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAU- Business As Usual (BAU) | 73 | 98 | 120 | 143 | -- |
WEM- With Existing Measures (WEM) | 73 | 92 | 105 | 118 | -17.5% |
WAM- With Additional Measures (WAM) | 73 | 87 | 92 | 97 | -32.2% |
NDC Alignment Assessment
The conditional NDC target is 97.2 MtCO2e (32% below BAU of 143 MtCO2e) by 2030. The unconditional target (7% below BAU) is 133 MtCO2e. Under the WEM scenario, projected 2030 emissions of 118 MtCO2e are below the unconditional target but exceed the conditional target by 20.8 MtCO2e, indicating that additional measures and international support are needed to achieve the full 32% reduction.